Solana Price Prediction: SOL Could Plunge 25% Despite ETF Inflows – Here’s Why

Solana (SOL) has been one of the hardest-hit major altcoins in early 2026, shedding over 37% of its value in a single month and crashing from its January 2025 all-time high of $293 to its current trading range near $85. Despite a wave of positive headlines — ETF inflows returning, Goldman Sachs disclosing $108 million in SOL holdings, and Solana’s Real-World Asset (RWA) ecosystem hitting a fresh all-time high — the technical structure tells a deeply bearish story. Analysts now warn SOL could fall another 25%, targeting the $64–$67 zone before any meaningful recovery materializes.

Current Market Snapshot

As of mid-February 2026, Solana trades near $85, consolidating in a tight range between $76.45 (recent low) and $89.38 (upper resistance). The broader sentiment is grim: the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 8 — Extreme Fear, and SOL has recorded green days on only 9 of the past 30 trading sessions. The token is currently ranked #7 by market cap with a circulating supply of approximately 567.9 million SOL.

Technical Analysis: Bears Are In Control

Price Below All Major Moving Averages

The most glaring bearish signal is SOL’s position relative to its key moving averages. The coin trades far below:

• 200-day SMA: ~$163 — a level it has not reclaimed since its November breakdown
• 50-day SMA: falling, acting as dynamic resistance on every attempted recovery
• 20-day SMA: declining, confirming the short-term downtrend remains intact

When an asset trades below all major moving averages simultaneously, it signals broad-based selling across all investor time horizons. There is no near-term technical floor of significance until the $76–$80 zone.

RSI: Oversold But Not Reversing

SOL’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 37–38 on the daily chart, approaching oversold territory but not yet triggering a reliable reversal signal. Historically, SOL has seen its RSI drop to the low 20s during deep capitulation events — a level not yet reached in this correction. On the 4-hour chart, RSI has been making lower highs in tandem with price, a classic bearish divergence that reinforces downside momentum.

17 Consecutive Days of Negative Funding Rates

One of the most telling signals in this cycle has been SOL’s 17 consecutive days of negative perpetual futures funding rates — a record streak. Negative funding means that short sellers are paying longs to stay open, which typically indicates a crowded short positioning. While this can sometimes lead to a short squeeze, the persistence of this condition over nearly three weeks suggests that market participants are not capitulating — they remain structurally bearish.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

A confirmed daily close below $76.45 would validate the bearish thesis and open the door toward the $64–$67 target range — representing a 25% decline from current prices.

Bollinger Bands Signal Elevated Volatility

The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are widening significantly, with the upper band near $107 and lower band at $92–$93 on lower timeframes. Widening bands historically precede explosive directional moves. Given the bearish structure, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.

Why ETF Inflows Aren’t Enough — Yet

On the surface, the ETF picture looks encouraging. US-listed spot SOL ETFs recorded $13.17 million in net inflows last week, snapping a two-week outflow streak. Goldman Sachs disclosed $108 million in SOL holdings. Solana’s RWA Total Value Locked (TVL) hit a new all-time high of $1.66 billion with over 285,000 unique holders.

So why isn’t SOL rallying?

The answer lies in supply-side pressure overwhelming demand-side optimism.

Galaxy Digital — the crypto firm led by Mike Novogratz — transferred 200,000 SOL (worth ~$16 million) to major exchanges including Binance, OKX, and Bybit this week. Large exchange deposits from institutional players are classic precursors to selling. When whales are depositing, retail ETF inflows of $13 million per week are simply not enough to absorb the overhead supply.

Furthermore, the $13.17M ETF inflow figure remains modest compared to peak inflow days of $69–$70 million seen in late October 2025. Cumulative ETF assets under management haven’t grown proportionally, and Grayscale’s GSOL ETF continues to see notably weak inflows relative to Bitwise’s BSOL — suggesting institutional conviction remains mixed.

The Macro Wildcard: FOMC Minutes

Adding to short-term uncertainty, the FOMC meeting minutes release on February 21 could act as a major catalyst in either direction. A hawkish surprise — suggesting rates will stay higher for longer — would likely accelerate selling across risk assets including crypto. SOL, with its high beta to BTC and broader risk-off environment, would be particularly vulnerable.

Bear Case Scenario: The Road to $64

Here’s how the bearish thesis plays out technically:

1. SOL fails to reclaim $89–$90 resistance on current bounce attempt
2. Price re-tests the $76.45 support zone
3. Negative funding rates persist; no catalyst forces shorts to cover
4. FOMC minutes deliver hawkish tone; macro risk-off sentiment intensifies
5. $76.45 breaks on volume — triggers stop-loss cascade
6. Price drops to $67 (initial analyst target) then extends to $64 (25% from $85)

At $64, SOL would approach critical long-term support and likely attract meaningful institutional accumulation, potentially setting the stage for a recovery into mid-2026.

Bull Case: What Could Save SOL?

To be fair, the bull case exists and carries real weight:

• ETF inflows continue to grow — sustained weekly inflows of $50M+ would shift the supply/demand dynamic
• $85 Fibonacci support holds and price reclaims the $90–$95 zone, targeting $120
• Alpenglow upgrade — Solana’s upcoming consensus layer overhaul — could reignite ecosystem interest and developer activity
• Broader crypto market recovery driven by BTC breaking above $100K could lift all altcoins including SOL
• Citi’s on-chain bill settlement and growing TradFi adoption on Solana could bring fresh institutional buyers

However, none of these catalysts appear imminent enough to reverse the current technical breakdown in the short term.

Chaikin Money Flow: No Buyers Step In

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator remains pinned near zero, showing no meaningful capital inflows at current price levels. Historically, a CMF drop to –0.20 has preceded notable downturns in SOL — and current readings suggest that threshold is within reach if selling pressure accelerates. This further reinforces the bearish near-term outlook.

Conclusion: SOL Bears Have the Edge — For Now

Solana’s fundamentals remain impressive: a $1.66B RWA ecosystem, record stablecoin supply of $15.3B, institutional ETF products, and backing from Goldman Sachs and Galaxy Digital. The long-term bull case for SOL remains intact. But in the near term, technicals, derivatives positioning, and macro uncertainty paint a different picture.

With SOL trading below all major moving averages, funding rates deeply negative for a record 17 days, and whale wallets sending large SOL deposits to exchanges, the path of least resistance points lower. A break below the critical $76.45 support could trigger a cascade toward $64–$67 — a 25% decline from current levels.

Traders should watch the $76.45 level closely. A confirmed breakdown with volume is the key signal to activate the full bearish target. Conversely, a sustained hold above $85 with improving ETF flow data could flip the short-term narrative back toward bulls.